We have the matchup for the 2020 Election with Joe Biden selecting Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee for Vice President. The emails and calls have kept coming in with regards to what we will do if one candidate or the other wins. I wrote a detailed email on June 29th discussing the historical performance of the stock market under both Republicans and Democrats. If you would like to read this article, in addition to other articles we have written, please go to our website and click the “News” tab. Despite the historical evidence laid out, the main pushback I received was that this time is different, and things have never been so polarized.
Peter Mallouk of Creative Planning gave his take on this:
“Because it’s 2020, we are on the brink of one of the most contentious elections of our lifetime and given that every race from Bush v. Gore on has been particularly hostile, that is saying something. I have vivid memories of encouraging clients to stick with their portfolios, and in some cases why they should remain U.S. citizens, after the election of President Obama, and again after the election of President Trump. The reality is elections have always been contentious. Those of us who long for the good old days when things were civil really don’t remember the old days or know their history.
During the John Adams v. Thomas Jefferson campaign, each had headline ads.
Here was John Adam’s key advertisement:
IF YOU ELECT THOMAS JEFFERSON
MURDER, ROBBERY, RAPE, INCEST, and ADULTRY will be practiced throughout the land. Are you prepared to see your dwellings in flames…FEMALE CHASTITY VIOLATED, or children writhing on the pike?
Thomas Jefferson, let’s just acknowledge, didn’t take the high road:
JOHN ADAMS IS…
…busy IMPORTING MISTRESSES from Europe or trying to marry one of his sons to the daughter of King George. He is a HIDEOUS, HERMAPHRODITICAL CHARACTER with neither the force or firmness of man, nor the gentleness and sensibility of a woman.”
In 2008 and 2012, we were told Obama is a socialist and the market is going to crash.
In 2016, Trump was going to do all kinds of crazy things and crash the markets.
If you are making investment decisions based solely on your political beliefs, it will lead to bad outcomes as shown below:
Whoever wins the election, for the most part, Americans will go about their lives. They will eat at the same restaurants; they will frequent the same stores and they will strive to make their lives better. Companies will find a way to innovate and be successful. There will always be strong opinions when it comes to politics. The markets do not care about your feelings on politics, it is looking at future earnings and economic growth.
If there are changes to our research, we will act accordingly, as it pertains to managing the Global Balanced Advisor, Growth Equity Portfolio and Diversified ETF Portfolio.
At this point, it is somewhat unpredictable as to whether Trump or Biden will win the election. However, regardless of the outcome, we will continue to strictly adhere to the investment disciplines of the Global Balanced Advisor, Growth Equity Portfolio and Diversified ETF Portfolio.
As always if you have any questions or concerns, please give us a call.
The information contained herein was obtained from sources considered reliable. However, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.
La Ferla Group does not provide legal or tax advice. You must consult with your legal or tax advisor regarding your personal circumstances.
Contact La Ferla Group if you have any questions; if your financial situation, individual needs or investment objectives have changed; or if you would like to impose or change any investment restrictions on your account(s).
La Ferla Group LLC (“La Ferla Group”) is a federally registered investment adviser with its principal place of business in the State of New York. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This brochure is limited to the dissemination of general information pertaining to its investment advisory and management services. For information pertaining to the registration status of La Ferla Group, please contact La Ferla Group or refer to the Investment Adviser Public Disclosure web site (www.adviserinfo.sec.gov). FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ABOUT LA FERLA GROUP, INCLUDING FEES AND SERVICES, SEND FOR OUR DISCLOSURE BROCHURE AS SET FORTH ON FORM ADV FROM LA FERLA GROUP USING THE CONTACT INFORMATION HEREIN. PLEASE READ THE DISCLOSURE BROCHURE CAREFULLY BEFORE YOU INVEST OR SEND MONEY.
Investment Adviser Public Disclosure (www.investor.gov/crs) (CRD# 174933)
This disclosure requirement is intended to provide retail customers with an understanding of a Registrant’s relationship and business practices to allow them to make informed decisions when selecting a Registrant with which to conduct business.
Regis R. Dillon, CFA, CFP®
Chief Investment Officer